This text offers my thoughts on two seemingly not connected topics. The first one is about role of luck and chance in human lives and how much it actually determines our paths. The second one is about human persistence and of not giving up at any cost. The connection between these two topics and the trigger for this text was a chance encounter I experienced while visiting Laos some time ago.

I have always been fascinated by the exceptional tranquility of South East Asia that I was able to feel every step of the way. I am not sure whether this is merely my impression, but I have a feeling that even stray dogs are not that aggressive over there, and do not bark, but mostly calmly sleep or walk about in a disinterested fashion. It is Laos in particular that is like this. Out of all countries in the neighborhood, it seems to me perhaps the calmest land in terms of people and the nature that surrounds them – some even claim this is the most relaxed nation in the world. The ancient Luang Prabang is particular quiet and it reminds me of a lost paradise on earth, where time has stopped and it has nothing to do with the modern and fast life.

At the beginning of this year, I visited Laos for a few days, as part of my trip to South East Asia. The name of the country, Laos, means the land of a million elephants. Elephants are (just like in the neighboring Thailand) holy animals, even though their total number is estimated at 2,000 only (out of which 500 are wild). Compared to their many times more numerous neighbors, this is a country with quite small population (about seven million), but is also a country of fairly rich and during 20th century, bloody history. During the long lasting Cold War conflict between American and communist forces, Laos gained the unflattering title of the most bombed country in the world. Even though this is one of the poorest countries in the world, it is simultaneously the country where it is easiest to become a millionaire. This is so since a million in the local currency (KIP) is only about EUR 100.

The capital is Vientiane and its name according to some interpretations means “the moonlight city” or some others say that it means “the city of sandal wood”. It has about one million people and it is undergoing, just like the rest of the country, a transformation from an isolated oasis, as it used to be for a number of years during the rule of the totalitarian communist regime, into a city that is seeing the first shy glimpses of the entry of foreign investments and the market economy. The principal cultural attractions in Vientiane are numerous Buddhist convents that dominate the downtown: the Vat Sisaket temple, the oldest original temple in a city with as many as 6,840 sculptures of Buddha, the refurbished and home of Buddha turned museum under the name of Ho Pha Keo that was first constructed as early as 1565, the 45 meter high Luang stupa (pagoda) that was constructed in 1566 and that represents the national symbol of Laos, and the triumphal arch of Patuxai constructed in 1958, modeled on the Paris one. Vientiane lies on the renowned Mekong river – the twelfth river in the world in terms of length, which, 4,350 kilometers long, flows all the way from China, through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, all the way to Vietnam – where it enters the South China Sea.

Apart from Vientiane, I also visited the second largest town in Laos on the Mekong – the ancient capital of Laos that goes under the name of Luang Prabang, where kings ruled from all the way to 1975, when communists took over. This is a truly magical and special place – perhaps the most tranquil and relaxed tourist place/center that I have ever visited. Scenery of impressive wooded areas through which the Mekong flows, as well as a lot smaller the Nam Khan, changes to exceptionally numerous and architecturally interesting Buddhist temples (especially for a town of 50,000 inhabitants), and next, to the river of calm Buddhist monks in red and orange robes that can be seen passing by. All of this gives away a special tranquility and the timeless feel – which can enchant numerous tourists who come here for a few days, only to stay for months, enjoying the serenity and calmness that can rarely be found (all of this at remarkably affordable prices that Laos generally has in contrast to other destinations). In 1995, Luang Prabang was due to its unique architecture, number of decently decorated temples and the rich cultural tradition, listed as a city protected by UNESCO.

Just how relaxed the inhabitants of Lang Prabang and Laos are, and what the extent of their avoiding situations that make them less tranquil and calm is, is best witnessed by the anecdote I heard from my guide on the attitude of local guides towards Israeli tourists. He told me all guides and cab drivers he knew are trying to avoid them for they know they are in for a discussion and bargaining about the price (and additionally not giving so generous tips). He told me he led a tour with Israelis during which a man would not give the agreed amount under the excuse he had not photographed them sufficiently when asked to do so. He insisted they pay only half the amount. The guide told him they had to deal with this via the police because they had agreed on the amount upfront. So they went to the police station and only getting just in front of it, the Israeli agreed to pay the full amount for tour leading (without a tip, of course). I too personally witnessed the long disucssion during which an Israeli tourist was refusing to pay the transport fee of about KIP 20,000 (about EUR 2), insisting on the price of KIP 10,000 since a friend of his told him that he was paying that much a year before for a similar route. This is, of course, a classic example of a clash between diametrically opposed cultures of the inhabitants of Laos and Israel. While Israelis are fairly aggressive, persistent and bargain about every detail to the death (which finally makes them so successful, especially in the material sense), the people of Laos are one of most relaxed nations I have been able to meet. This is exactly why Laos, and Luang Prabang in particular, give away special calmness, relaxedness and the feeling of the very time stopping in this stress free environment. Most of us, after all, experience stress practically every day.

A Chance Encounter In Laos And About Luck In General

At the end of my visit to Luang Prabang and after two to three days of enjoying this timeless oasis, before my flight out of Laos, my guide asked me if I wanted to go ride an elephant, saying there were the options of riding on its neck or in a saddle. I opted for the “cowboy” riding on the elephant’s neck, because I had not tried anything like it earlier, and I had plenty of time. Getting to the park where the ride was organized, after about an hour’s wait, It was finally my turn. This coincided with an Argentine family getting ready for the same. I thus sat on my elephant together with a father of three kids, who were distributed together with the mother on two other elephants.

After a few minutes of riding on the elephant’s neck (the man was behind me in the saddle), we started a polite conversation about who was from where. Once I told him I was from Croatia, the man was visibly exhilarated and said he had visited Croatia the year before. He continued by saying he actually visited a very good friend who was Croatian and who, just like himself, is living in Kuala Lumpur. When he added the man’s name was Bojan and that he is a successful football coach, I could not believe it. He was actually talking about best man of a very good friend of mine and who we had even together visited in Kuala Lumpur some ten years back. Incredible. How likely was it to meet an Argentinean living in Kuala Lumpur on an elephant in Laos who is a good friend of a Croatian from Kuala Lumpur who took me in 10 years ago? Probably close to zero. But this is exactly the encounter I experienced. This prompted me to think how coincidence and little likely events can sometimes tremendously impact our lives.

Nassim Taleb is a very interesting author who writes on chance exactly and how chance is a integral component of our lives. Before becoming a writer, he worked for a number of years on Wall Street as a stock broker. During this time he got exposed to the market fluctuation and unpredictability and learnt first-hand how hard it is to predict certain unbelievable events. He refers to such events as black swans, and writes of them in his book with the same title. His thinking is as follows: if you have seen during your lifetime hundreds, thousands or even millions of white swans with no single black swan – this for sure does not mean black swans do not exist. Therefore if the stock market until 2008, was on constant rise since the very formation of it in Croatia, this does not mean this would go on forever. Or if it was more favorable to take up loans in Swiss francs than in Euro or kuna until 2009, this does not mean it would always be more favorable. Many have had the opportunity to painfully see this during the last few years. People usually base most of their decisions on their experience and projections from the past. The problem is that projections might not reoccur and if people can tie up their destiny completely to those expectations and consequences can be in such cases devastating.

A chance set of circumstances can sometimes impact the course of events very significantly, sometimes even in case of history. Let us just consider what would have happened had Hitler been accepted to the art academy to which he unsuccessfully applied twice, and had he channeled his energy and mania in to art. Perhaps he would have been a successful (or less successful) painter and there would have not been WWII. Or perhaps there would have been. This we shall never know. The renowned and controversial prophet Nostradamus wrote of the future as a probable and possible sequence of events. He commented that future depends on the circumstances, but also on the human actions and decisions made in those circumstances.

It is impossible to foresee all implications of our decisions for the future - positive or negative ones. During our careers, we reach decisions that seem best and most logical at the moment, but long term they may not be such. We witness numerous entrepreneurs and managers in Croatia, who have until recently seemed the symbol for business success, being thrown into jail because of fraud, or their companies going bankrupt due to inability to adjust to the economic crisis.

There is an interesting and instructive story on the wise man Solon who lived in ancient Greece. Solon was invited to a party at the, by far, the richest man in the region, who asked him who the happiest man he knew was. To this Solon replied this was probably the warrior who died in the struggle for what he considered right. Rich man was confused and he asked him whether he did not see the riches and splendor surrounding him, and whether he should not be the happiest man. Solon answered that happiness was something one could judge only upon life’s completion i.e. happiness depended on how the rest of his life would proceed. A few years later, Persians conquered the Greek region and Persian king captured the rich man, ordering soldiers to burn him alive. On his way to be burned at stake, the now ex rich man exclaimed: “Solon, you were right!” Intrigued by this, the Persian king ordered the man to be brought back from the stake to explain his words. The convicted man told him the story of Solon that impressed the Persian king so much he finally pardoned the (formerly) wealthy man.

Another almost incredible true life story is the one of a good friend of my sister’s, who, in different aspects of her life, had such pronounced combinations of bad and good luck, this is indeed hard to believe. That is, upon completion of her studies, she began the career of a fashion designer, and few years later she became exceptionally successful and well recognized in Croatia. It seemed happiness smiled at her unquestioned talent and that long and successful fashion designer career was ahead of her, perhaps even outside the borders of Croatia. Unfortunately, already at the start of her thirties, she started having severe medical conditions that very soon forced her to abandon the promising career and devote herself to her health, taking up a less demanding job that her worsening medical condition would be able to withstand. Today, she lives along constant struggle with a severe disease, which has unfortunately advanced, but this does not stop her from wanting to live, something she shows vividly every day.

What is additionally striking is her almost unbelievable luck in playing any types of lottery: during the past few years she won tens, perhaps even hundreds of different prizes at the games she played. She does not even play all possible lotteries, but she wins significant prizes almost every time at the ones she does play. Some of her acquaintances and friends tried asking her to play for them. She did that but she would not win anything in such cases. It was only when she chose a game she wanted to play and when she would play in her name that the award would almost always inevitably follow. Incredible. People with no wisdom and compassion can say she is the luckiest person on Earth. I think it is silly to debate whether she is fortunate or unfortunate. I am convinced she would trade all of her lottery wins, even more, for health right away. Health is something the rest of us take for granted without being conscious just how lucky we are to have it. Until we get reminded of this by something or someone.

On persistence and on not giving up

Riding the elephant with my co-traveler in Laos, we touched upon the common acquaintance/friend Bojan. The Argentinean told me Bojan is exceptionally respected and exposed in media in Malaysia. He is the coach of a leading Malay football club and has been renowned as one of the best football experts in the country for a number of years now. Just as an aside, in the beginning of 1990s, Bojan was also a great defender and played for the Hrvatski dragovoljac. Scouts took notice of him, he had the transfer arranged to go to the German St. Pauli for the amount that was at the time definitely among higher ones in Croatia. He was about the same age as majority of bronze winning Croatian national team football players from World Championship in 1998, so he would have peaked at about the same time that World Cup 98 took place and potentially be in this historic Croatian team. But fate had other plans for him. During a routine training before starting for German football club St. Pauli and a few days before very lucrative contract was signed, he had a severe leg injury and his professional career was thus greatly limited. He moved to Asia and played for football clubs in Hong Kong and Singapore, where demands on athlets were not as high as in Europe.

Having finished with his professional career, he immediately started the coaching one. He got famous leading a team of young players filmed by a Malay reality show, which realized its greatest success just at the time of his lead (2006 – 2009). Afterwards, he coached the champion of Cambodia, a Chinese club that was a cup finalist and then returned to Malaysia as a main coach for the club with which he won the championship and the triple crown (unheard of earlier). With each of his clubs, he achieved something for the very first time in the history of those clubs.

Regardless of his injury and therefore inability to become top European player, when one looks at things objectively – the coaching career Bojan has today is significantly better than careers of most players that won the bronze in 98. It is hard to say whether he would have realized it without the fateful injury. It is also hard to know whether, if he had signed for St. Pauli before the injury, he would have found any motive to leave to Asia at all and to look for happiness and success there. But it is sure that heavy injury on the eve of signing a lifetime’s contract did not throw him into self pity and defeatism. On the contrary it pushed him to search for an environment and the calling that today makes him tremendously successful.

In contrast to this example, there is a list of athletes who achieved phenomenal sport results, but were later not as successful in what they did. For example, several famous American athletes immediately squandered all they earned during their careers and afterwards had to adapt to much more modest lifestyles (much different from the willful behavior they practiced during their careers). Some of them, like Mike Tyson, even ended up in jail for a while. In Croatia, there are some top athletes as well (such as Roland Garros winner Iva Majoli) who were not so successful in business after a successful sporting career. The point is that even great success in a certain early phase of life does not guarantee long term success, just like misfortune and failure in an early phase do not mean somebody will not rise above this and, precisely because of this, find strength for great future achievements (just like Solon wisely said several thousand years ago).

Stephen Hawking, one of greatest thinkers of today in the area of physics, is almost completely paralyzed, but this did not stop him achieve what he did. Nick Vujičić was visiting Zagreb a while ago, and he is one of world famous motivational speakers. Nick has no arms and speaks of the need to look at things positively and see opportunity everywhere – as testified by his calling and life choice. There are numerous examples of people who beat ill luck through willpower, and even drew strength from it for future success. They inspire and motivate us to see challenges ahead of us, not obstacles.

When Roald Admunsen found out that North Pole was just conquered, after he spent years preparing for this expedition, he simply pointed his ship towards the South Pole and became the first man who conquered it. Sylvester Stallone was mocked as a child because of the way he was speaking, everybody were saying he had no acting talent and that he should stop trying to be an actor. Cicero allegedly had a speech impediment, but practiced pronunciation with a pebble in his mouth, so that he would speak clearly once he took it out.

I would like to conclude the list of people who showed exceptional persistence, with two famous examples of persons who, through their incredible will and perseverance, earned their place in world history. These are Abraham Lincoln and Winston Churchill.

For those who do not know, the life of Abraham Lincoln was marked by a series of misfortunes and failures. Let us look at this amazing list:

• Ran for the Illinois legislature and was defeated.
• Entered business with a partner and once the business went bankrupt it took him 17 years to repay debts.
• Fell in love with a girl to whom he got engaged but she soon passed away.
• Asked another girl to marry him but she refused him.
• Ran for Congress but was defeated.
• Became a candidate for the Senate but was defeated.
• Became a candidate for the vice president but was defeated.
• Defeated in the race for President.

Suffered the loss of two sons – Eddie (3) and Willie (12), which caused an emotional breakdown in the family, from which Mrs. Lincoln never recovered.

Nevertheless, Lincoln finally became one of for sure most appreciated US presidents in history and is to be credited with the abolishment of slavery in the entire USA, following the victory of the North in the Civil War. During his exceptionally turbulent life he did a number of jobs, such as the rail junction employee, ship hand, leased worker, trade representative, soldier, shop owner, postman, surveyor, lawyer for the state, attorney, congressman and finally - President of USA. What a list! And what an incredible energy and will to fight and prevail.

Winston Churchill was known as very unique and colorful character. His statements are today legendary and are often quoted; starting from the one he found no difficulty in stopping smoking - for he had done it a thousand times already. His political career during the 1930s seemed as a lost cause. Coming to the age of late fifties, gaining weight and losing hair along the way, he was widely blamed in public for British distancing during the depression and was labeled as the architect and the culprit for the great defeat during WWI at Gallipoli, where 213,980 British troops died without a single goal having been achieved. He caused the breakup of his political party by isolating himself from the prevalent opinion India should become independent and refusing to meet Gandhi at all. During the great crisis of 1929, he lost most of his assets, and at the close of 1931. he got ran over by a car in New York because he had looked to the right when crossing not left as he should have. What followed was a long recovery and a fall into depression. When visiting Britain in 1932, Jossif Stalin asked the well informed Lady Astor about the situation on the political scene in the country. She pointed to the newly coming star of Neville Chamberlain, and when asked about Churchill, she just waved her hand and said: “He’s finished.”

Eight years later, on 4 June 1940, Churchill was standing in front of the parliament as the prime minister at the moment when Hitler’s panzer divisions conquered almost the entire European continent. Most world leaders, including many in Britain, saw no alternative but to surrender Britain to Nazis. Churchill’s political rivals expected peaceful negotiations with Hitler so they could later blame him for the capitulation of Britain. They were wrong. Carefully preparing his notes (that he always carried, being afraid he could be rendered speechless), he came out in front of the parliament and said his, now famous words: “We shall never surrender. Even if, which I don’t believe for a single moment, this island or a better part of it is devastated and is starving, our overseas Empire, armed and guarded by the British fleet, shall then continue our fight in God’s name, until the New World, with its power and might, does not step forward to save the Old World.”

Not only did Churchill make up by giving Britain the voice of self-confidence in the fight against the Axis powers, but he also received the Nobel for literature, came back as Prime Minister at the age of 77, and was knighted by the Queen. At the time of the toughest days for England, in 1941, Churchill came by his old primary school Harrow (where he got very poor grades as a pupil), to hold a speech. The head master worriedly glanced at Churchill during the ceremony, because he slept through most of the festivities. When he was introduced, Churchill went out and told the school children his principal message that became part of history: “This is the lesson: never give up, never, never, never, never, never – not in small or great things, significant or insignificant, never give up except faced with justified rebukes of honor or common sense. Never be subdued by force; never be subdued by the seemingly overbearing might of the enemy.”

It is impossible to foresee the future that sometimes surprises us with sudden and hardly likely sequences of events and almost unbelievable encounters, such as the one I had on the elephant in Laos. Life is unpredictable and full of coincidence that can greatly impact our destinies. We cannot have a say on whether we or someone dear to us will find themselves before illness or misfortune one day. What we can influence are the things in our power, be persistent and never give up. Therefore, regardless of life choices we make or that life makes for us, it is important to be persistent and to dedicate oneself to things we truly believe in – whether this is dedication to one’s family or to work or perhaps dedication to some higher goal in sport, business, politics or humanitarian work.

With such consistent approach I trust that, even in circumstances that are and have to be at some extent subject to chance, we can successfully manage our lives by using our strong willpower and by following certain values we believe in. All existing religions in the world insist exactly on such persistence that brings some order and purpose to human lives, bringing people calmness from chaos and helping them to accept more easily all uncertainty that surrounds them. People most often have a hard time dealing with great uncertainty or chance, so we can say that actually whole technological advancement of mankind was done by large as an attempt to understand better unknown and uncertain things around us and to try to control them and manage them as much as we can. In certain segments of our lives we even manage to do so and this helps us to simplify our lives but in some others (such as investment in stocks or forecasting weather), all we can do is to make our best estimate and hope that it will not be far from the reality.

We have to accept the fact that large number of things around us are unpredictable and subject to chance, find certain beauty and charm in this unpredictability of life or even ascribe some fate or religious significance to it - if this is easier for us or in line with our beliefs. In any case, it is important to have our firm values and to be persistent in things that matter the most to us. In this way we will for sure not surrender to defeatism and resignation during difficult times (which happen to everyone eventually more or less) and will exit from these difficulties even stronger and more resolute. Along the way, we have to be ready to face any challenges that life brings to us in the future and most of all - we should never, never, never give up!

Josip Muller, August 18th 2013